Trade

The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to tank. Plus: there are signs that the mania in ‘AI’ stocks has gone too far too fast.

The initial phase of the EU’s ambitious CBAM will launch 1 October and will begin collecting a carbon tax in 2026. Between now and then, it will be challenged as it attempts to put a price tag on CO2 emissions as imports cross the EU border. The CBAM will impart an inflationary bias in EU commodity and goods markets as 2026 draws near and importers have to secure EU ETS credits, the number of which, by design, will contract over time.

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.

China’s appetite for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to rise this year, spurred on by collapsing international LNG prices and a moderate recovery in domestic demand. Global LNG prices will face upward pressure on recovering worldwide demand and a limited supply increase in the second half of the year. We expect LNG prices in China and globally to be 20-30% higher than current levels by the end of this year.

Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical risk should encourage investors to maintain a defensive position for the coming 12 months.

Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising geopolitical risk.

In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will likely lead to a further tightening in bank lending standards, raising further the odds of a US recession over the coming year. We continue to recommend an underweight stance toward risky assets versus government bonds over the coming 6-12 months, and defensive positioning within a global equity portfolio. In Section II, we estimate the impact of recently-passed US legislation on US business investment over the structural horizon and conclude that it will indeed boost capex growth over the coming several years. Assets poised to benefit from this trend will likely underperform over the coming year but should be bottom-fished following the next recession.

US financial instability reinforces our bearish investment outlook by weighing on economic growth and corporate earnings while also increasing US policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

The first legislative meeting of Xi Jinping’s third term suggests that Chinese policy is continuous and consistent with the previous ten years, which is negative for long-term productivity.

The development of trading blocs and the rise of economic warfare will lead to the inefficient allocation of resources. Higher fiscal outlays and tight commodity supplies will feed into energy prices driving headline inflation. It also will drive demand for inventories as hedges against supply volatility globally higher. We remain long equity exposure via ETFs to oil and gas producers, and metals miners. We also retain our exposure to commodities via the COMT ETF.