Trump's Policies

Simple games allow us to model several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in 2025. We find that markets face an increase in volatility as Congress expands the budget, Trump implements tariffs on the world, China retaliates, and Taiwan tensions persist. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a marginally positive outcome for Europe, although it is not a long-term peace treaty. 

In this Special Report, we share our “thoughts from the field,” gathered during a week of panels and conversations at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Our main takeaways include China’s rising global presence (despite its deceptive absence at the forum), the rising consensus on AI investment as the new corporate best practice, mounting stakes in the AI race, and the global shift toward MAGA-branded ideology as President Trump enters his second term. We also reflect on the surprising lack of geopolitical focus in the discussions and the forum’s broader role in the global geopolitical landscape. 

We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers.

There is no better way to gauge the macro policies of the new US administration than being privy to President Donald Trump’s discussions with the new Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent. While we do not have inside information, we have put the pieces of the puzzle together to help clients see the big picture. This report presents our take on a hypothetical conversation between President Trump and Scott Bessent that led to the latter’s appointment as Treasury secretary.

President Trump is only the second president to have won, lost, and won again in US history, so today’s inaugural address was unlike any other since Grover Cleveland in 1893. 

Inauguration Day or shortly thereafter will see either a global tariff of 10% or targeted but substantial tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. Treasury yields will rise on tax cuts, the dollar will stay strong, yet oil will also continue to rally, causing equity volatility in the near term. 

In this Special Report, BCA’s Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Matt Gertken discusses the top five “Black Swan” risks for 2025, from Trump to China.

Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordinated FX intervention.