United States
Preliminary estimates suggest that with the exception of the UK (see Country Focus), manufacturing activity remains lackluster in DM economies. Manufacturing declined at a slower pace in Japan and Australia but the contractions unexpectedly accelerated in the…
Gold reached new all-time highs earlier this week. The yellow metal has returned a whopping 20.2% YTD, with the rally reaccelerating over the past month. Gold prices are inversely correlated with the dollar, and the expectations for US interest rate cuts have…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the logic of pursuing one’s interest against US interests in the final hours of the election mostly applies to states that will suffer a significant loss to their strategic security if the…
We’ve highlighted that continued deterioration in consumer fundamentals will tip the US economy into a recession. Slower compensation growth, tighter lending standards for consumer loans and dwindling excess savings will constrain spending in an economy where…
According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) financial conditions have become considerably more supportive since the fall of 2023. More recently, the index ticked noticeably lower from 99.4 earlier in August to 98.8. US equities have indeed…
The DXY hit a 2024 low on Wednesday. The decline which totaled nearly 5% from its April highs, gathered pace this month (a 3% decline in August) when labor market worries spooked markets. The Fed had already telegraphed it was getting closer to cutting…
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down the number of workers on payrolls by 818 thousand over the twelve months period ending March 2024. This largest downward revision since 2009 thus implies that the labor market has been far less resilient than…
Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take advantage of US division and distraction.
It didn't take long for markets to utterly shrug off the surprise rise in July's unemployment rate. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed higher than it was the day before the July Employment Situation report was released. The Russell 2000 gained 5.2% since…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy and US Bond Strategy services, the drivers of the structural downtrend in real interest rates include: demographic trends (declining fertility rates, longer life expectancy and a rising dependency…