United States
The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.
US dollar liquidity has been shrinking, which has important ramifications for global asset prices, including currencies. In this report, we delve into the process of dollar liquidity creation and the outlook for currencies over the next six-to-twelve months.
The conventional wisdom is wrong: Trump is not going to substantially cut taxes once in office; he is going to raise taxes by jacking up tariffs. To the extent that this dampens economic activity, it is bad news for stocks but good news for bonds.
In light of last week’s employment report and this morning’s CPI, it’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.