United States

The Best Possible World For European Stocks?

Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.

2 years ago

Europe

Essentials

Does Today’s Low Unemployment Rate Guarantee A Soft Landing?

The US unemployment rate stands at just 4.0% today following 27 consecutive sub-4% readings. Does this low unemployment rate guarantee a soft landing in the US economy? Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team’s base case is that the US economy will fall…

2 years ago

Essentials

ISM Services PMI Contracts At Fastest Pace In Four Years

The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in June. The headline index plunged from 53.8 to 48.8, its fastest pace of contraction since May 2020, far below expectations of 52.7. This series can be noisy and the June update merely reversed a surprise surge…

2 years ago

Essentials

Mortgage Rates Back Above 7%

The US conventional 30-year mortgage rate climbed back above 7% in late June and drove a 2.6% weekly contraction in mortgage applications. The fixed-rate home affordability index sank to a nearly four-decade low. Housing is one of the most interest-rate…

2 years ago

Essentials

Bleak Capex Outlook Bodes Ill For Cyclical Assets

US durable goods orders grew by 0.1% m/m in May, a tick below April’s pace, and upending preliminary expectations they would decline by 0.5%. Moreover, the contraction in core capital goods shipments (an input into the calculation of GDP) was revised lower…

2 years ago

Essentials

Will The Greenback Continue To Appreciate?

The trade-weighted US dollar ranked among the top performing major asset classes we track in June. It hit a low on June 3rd and has appreciated by 1.5% since then. This is despite no change in short-end rate differentials and an outright narrowing in long-end…

2 years ago

Essentials

Introducing GeoMacro Strategy: The Search For Geopolitical Beta

BCA Research’s newly launched GeoMacro Strategy service presents the User’s Manual in its inaugural report navigating the differences between Geopolitical alpha and beta. What is the difference between geopolitical alpha and beta?…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

US Unemployment: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

We explain how to distinguish between ‘good’, ‘bad’ and ‘ugly’ unemployment, why bad unemployment is a much better gauge of the jobs market than headline unemployment, and what this means for the tactical positioning in bonds and stocks. Plus: base metals (XBM) have already sold off sharply, so take profits in the short position and open a tactical overweight in global materials (MXI).

2 years ago

GeoMacro

Remember, Remember, the Fifth of November

In our Volume I – The Alpha Report – we posit that the French bond market reaction is a mere amuse bouche for what is coming to the US. All year, we have warned investors that US politics could induce a bond market riot. This moment is nigh. Act accordingly!

2 years ago

FICC

Trump Versus Macro

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.

2 years ago

Bonds

United States

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