United States
GAI technology has made tremendous gains over the past year. It has advanced from being a mere “curiosity” to becoming an everyday helper. While the promise of GAI is enormous, its effects are still limited: Companies are still struggling with monetization while productivity improvement is still at least a year away. In terms of evolution, the focus is shifting away from “picks and shovels” infrastructure companies toward model and application developers.
Indicators continue to point to resilient US housing market dynamics. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased for the fourth consecutive month to an 8-month high of 51 in March, beating expectations it would remain unchanged at 48. Increases across all three…
Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…
Improved consumer morale will not compensate for the fading tailwinds to consumption. Neither will the wealth effects from higher stocks and home prices.
US Investment grade and high yield spreads have tightened 39 and 133 bps since their October 2023 highs, resulting in the outperformance of both fixed income sectors relative to equivalent-duration Treasuries. Still robust economic growth in the US…
Our US Beige Book monitor – which we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s report – continues to signal lackluster US economic conditions. Historically, the monitor has closely tracked real GDP growth in the US. However, the long standing…
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, dynamics have shifted beneath the surface of the S&P 500. The Materials sector has been rallying sharply since the end of January, gaining 9.9% over this period and taking the top spot among the 11 sectors. This…
The US retail sales report for February delivered a disappointing signal on Thursday. Although retail sales returned to expansion, the 0.6% m/m increase fell below anticipations of a 0.8% m/m rise. In addition, the prior month was revised down to a -1.1% m/m…
Gold has had a stunning rally over the past few weeks, gaining 9.2% since February 14 and reaching consecutive all-time highs last week before paring back some of its gains. Indeed, the drivers of gold have moved in a bullish direction for the yellow metal.…
The latest MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications rose 7.1% in the week ending March 8 on the back of a 4.7% increase in purchases and a 12.2% rise in refinancing, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. Higher mortgage activity comes amid…