United States
The November Empire Manufacturing survey beat expectations, rising to 18.7 from 10.7, its fourth positive reading in five months. Both new orders and shipments increased and signaled solid activity, while the employment index ticked up to 6.6. Price pressures…
Tariffs are fading in importance as companies successfully mitigate cost pressures and preserve profitability. The recent wave of high-profile layoffs is more concerning, but there does not appear to be a systemic reason behind the announcements. However, emerging labor market softness could pose a major risk for equities. We remain vigilant.
Our Global Investment strategists see the AI boom tracking historical capex bubbles and expect it to peak within the next 6 to 12 months. Drawing lessons from the railway, electrification, internet, and oil booms, they warn that investment manias tend to…
European sentiment remains mixed, with growth momentum failing to pick up despite brighter long-term prospects. Economic surprises have improved since mid-October, but tight financial conditions, driven by a strong euro and higher Bund yields since the start…
The S&P500 has fallen by 2% from its peak, but BCA clients see this as little more than a blip. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, we asked our clients whether the recent stock market softness is the start of a bear…
This Special Report outlines the Fed’s balance sheet strategy and the rationale behind it. We also provide updated projections for the major asset and liability line items on the Fed’s balance sheet.
The White House announced the October jobs and CPI reports are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown, but alternative indicators already point to weaker labor and inflation momentum. The labor market was stalling, though not collapsing,…
The October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index missed estimates, ticking down to 98.2 from 98.8, reflecting softer expectations and earnings. Lower earnings were driven by both weaker sales volumes and higher costs. The share of small businesses citing poor…
Our US Equity strategists highlight Data Center Infrastructure as a long-term investment theme, with Capital Goods and Materials companies emerging as key GenAI beneficiaries. As hyperscalers accelerate global data center expansion, demand for turbines, grid…
Inflation expectations remain central to monetary policy frameworks, as they hinge on central bank credibility and shape policy responses. After years of persistent disinflation and zero lower bound constraints between the GFC and the pandemic, policymakers…