United States
Macro momentum remains neutral, with the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI showing stabilizing yet still weak growth. The headline index missed expectations and continued to signal contraction, but new orders, which usually lead the headline, improved. Regional…
Markets are overpricing the risk of the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s tariffs. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief US and Geopolitical Strategist. Following Wednesday’s Supreme Court hearing, betting markets have moved to reflect…
The FOMC meeting in mid-December remains live. The rates market is pricing in a 72% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, 69% of respondents agreed, but another 37% thought…
US consumer sentiment fell sharply in November, signaling weaker momentum despite resilient consumption data. The preliminary University of Michigan Index dropped more than expected to 50.3 from 53.6, near all-time lows. Both current conditions and…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2025.
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend a long Asian semiconductor stocks / short US hyperscalers trade over the next 6–12 months, with a positive return profile in both bullish and bearish AI scenarios. Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers stand to benefit…
As the government shutdown nears its end, alternative data continue to show a gradually weakening US labor market. The October ADP report indicated slowing private-sector job growth, while Indeed data showed a decline in job openings, signaling softening…
US assets should benefit in the short run as investors recognize that US checks and balances still operate – and so does the election cycle.
The October ISM Services PMI beat estimates, rising to 52.4 from 50.0, but volatility and mixed internals argue for a cautious interpretation. The strength was broad, led by a jump in new orders to 56.2 from 50.4, while employment, though still contracting,…
The October ADP report beat estimates but remains consistent with a stalled labor market and slowing job creation. The report showed 42k new private-sector jobs, while September was revised to a loss of 29k from 32k. Only half of industries reported job…