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United States

Shutdown Watch: The End Is Near
Off-year election results are likely to bring an end to the 36-day US government shutdown, as Democrats and Republicans both have incentives to compromise. Democrats initiated the standoff to energize their base ahead of the elections but, with victories…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US-Canada Policy Divergence Creates Opportunity In Canadian Bonds
2025 has underscored widening policy and market divergence between the US and Canada, but Canadian yields still offer room for downside. The spread between the 2-year GoC yield and the overnight rate is less than 10 bps, compared with over 40 bps between the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Trade Truce, Party Politics, And The 15th Five-Year Plan
Our Geopolitical strategists view the Trump–Xi summit as a limited but market-friendly outcome, extending the tariff truce and reducing near-term geopolitical risk. While no trade deal was reached, modest concessions such as lower tariffs and a pause on…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
S&P 500: Tactical Checkpoint
The mild S&P 500 pullback does not signal a market top, as positioning and volatility metrics remain contained. The current drawdown is small, even as valuations stay elevated. It also reflects the reflexive nature of markets: Institutional investors…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tracking Risks To The Equity Bull Market
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists see no immediate red flags for the bull market and recommend staying overweight equities and fixed income. The AI capex cycle remains intact. Equity distributions are exceeding issuance, and rising ROIC suggests the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Weak ISM Data Keep Fed On Track For Easing
The October ISM Manufacturing survey missed expectations, signaling sluggish growth and easing price pressures. The index slipped to 48.7 from 49.1, contracting for the eight consecutive month, driven by weaker production and lower inventories. The decline…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Sector Chart Pack: No Capex Bust Ahead

Investor reaction to Meta’s GenAI is an admonition against overspending, rather than a sign of a fraying GenAI rally. Other hyperscalers’ investments are driven by buoyant demand and remain profitable. With valuations stretched and many of the positives priced in, market consolidation is likely. We are decreasing portfolio beta.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Rishabh Shah
Central Banks In The Fog: Searching For Direction

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

European Investment Strategy by Robert Timper, Artem Sakhbiev, Mathieu Savary
Shutdown Watch: Filibuster Holds
The filibuster is likely to survive, limiting the long-term policy impact of the current government shutdown. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political Strategist. Despite President Trump’s call to repeal the…
Daily Insights by Matt Gertken
Central Banks In The Fog: Searching For Direction

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper, Artem Sakhbiev, Mathieu Savary

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