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United States

US Retail Sales Diverge from Weak Sentiment, Labor Deceleration Ahead
August retail sales beat expectations, but resilience in consumption does not alter a defensive stance as labor momentum weakens. Headline sales rose 0.6% m/m, unchanged from July, while core ex-autos and gas accelerated to 0.7% from 0.3%. The control group…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Are Credit Spreads That Tight?
Special Report

Structural tailwinds help explain tight credit spreads. In Europe, we see room for further tightening. Stay underweight US credit amid cyclical risks, but upgrade Euro Area IG to overweight and HY to neutral.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Jeremie Peloso, Robert Timper
US Consumer Sentiment Weakens Along With Labor Market
US consumer sentiment deteriorated in September, reinforcing signs of slowing consumption and supporting a defensive stance. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped more than expected to 55.4 from 58.2, with declines in both…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
(Probably) No US Recession
BCA clients are divided on whether the US economy is heading into a recession, but lean towards the view that it will be avoided. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, 43% of respondents answered that the US will enter…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Stablecoins Spotlight

From Treasurys to tokenization, stablecoins are quietly becoming one of the most disruptive forces in global finance, with the power to compress yields, deepen dollar penetration, and shift the balance within crypto markets. Explore BCA’s latest insights on their growing impact.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Artem Sakhbiev
August US CPI Shows Limited Inflation Outside Tariffs
August US CPI was in line with expectations, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and a long-duration stance. Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), while core held at 0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y). Core goods inflation ticked up to 1.5% y/y from 1.1%, while services…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Stagflation Today, Recession Tomorrow

High US inflation is being driven by tariffs, not domestic inflationary pressure. This argues for Fed easing and a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Cooler US PPI Reinforces Case For September Rate Cut
August PPI inflation cooled, reinforcing the case for Fed easing and long duration with steepeners. Headline PPI fell 0.1% m/m, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% after July’s 0.7% gain. Core PPI (ex-food, energy, and trade) rose 0.3% m/m (2.8% y/y).…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The EM Bond Rally Isn’t Exhausted Yet

USD-denominated Emerging Market bonds have been outperforming US corporates for the past year. We don’t think the rally is exhausted yet.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Small Business Confidence Improves But Growth Is Still Fragile
The August NFIB survey shows a fragile US economy with disinflationary signals and weak employment, supporting our defensive stance. The Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8 from 100.3, a six-month high, though still below December 2024 levels. Much of…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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