United States
US job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, underscoring continued labor market weakening. Openings declined to 7.18m from 7.36m. The decline was led by non-cyclical sectors such as education and health services, which had recently been drivers of…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.
August ISM Manufacturing was mixed, with stronger orders offset by weak production and employment. The headline rose to 48.7 from 48.0, missing expectations. New orders beat estimates, rising into expansion at 51.4 and lifting the New…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upgrade the Chinese yuan to overweight as global imbalances between production and consumption begin to reverse. The US continues to overconsume and underproduce, while China overproduces and underconsumes. Early signs…
Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market.
July income and spending data confirmed resilient consumption and sticky inflation, however, slowing labor momentum keeps us defensive. Real personal spending increased 0.3% m/m. Personal income rose 0.4% m/m, with real income ex-transfer payments…
Regional Fed surveys point to low GDP growth, not an outright recession, which tactically supports low growth plays such as duration and tech. These timely surveys provide a snapshot of current month activity, combining “objective” indicators such as…
Volatility has fallen to 2025 lows even as positioning data show caution despite the S&P 500’s steady rebound. US equities have climbed back to all-time highs with minimal drawdown, steadily compressing realized volatility and pulling implied…
July US durable goods orders rebounded, but investment signals remain subdued and favor duration and tech. Orders fell 2.8% m/m after a 9.4% June drop, better than expected. Core measures excluding volatile components were stronger, with nondefense…
Mixed consumer confidence data and weakening labor signals argue for a modestly defensive stance. The August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index beat expectations but fell from an upwardly revised 98.7. The present situation component edged lower…