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United States

Risk Asymmetry Persists
The S&P 500 sits near all-time highs, but sentiment and positioning suggest euphoria has not driven this rally. Prices are elevated, yet the SKEW/VIX ratio sits at 8.3, or its 67th percentile. While not at extreme levels associated with reversals, it…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Breaking The Buck: EUR/USD Is Headed For 1.40
Our DM ex-US strategists see EUR/USD in a multi-year bull market and recommend selling EUR/JPY at 172.5. The euro’s 2025 rally has been driven first by improving Eurozone growth expectations, then by mounting concerns over the US balance of payments. The US…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Empire Fed Beats, But Signal Too Noisy To Shift Positioning
The July Empire Fed beat estimates, but survey volatility, inventory distortions, and shallow strength dampen this signal.  The headline index surged to 5.5 from -16.0, supported by gains in shipments, employment, and capex intentions. However, new…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
One Big Beautiful Basket
Special Report

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment. 

US Political Strategy, Equity Analyzer, US Equity Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Guy Russell
US: Tariff Pressures Build, But Broad Inflation Remains Contained
June CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with tariff passthrough building in goods but broader inflation pressures likely to remain contained. Headline inflation came in slightly above expectations at 2.7% y/y (0.3% m/m), while core matched estimates…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Trade War Finally Hits CPI

We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Markets Catching Up

Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has adjusted sharply. Today’s Strategy Report reviews these developments and updates our country-level ILB positioning.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri
Risk Assets Face Negative Convexity
Equities have retraced sharply from Liberation Day lows, but renewed policy risk and mispriced volatility keep us tactically cautious. The Trump administration softened its trade stance as equities neared bear market territory in early April, but has now…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
SX5E Fails To Break Out As Financial Conditions Tighten
European equities have recently lagged the S&P 500, with short-term risks building despite a constructive long-term outlook. After reaching all-time highs in February, the EURO STOXX 50 began to stall as US markets sold off on Deep Seek headlines. The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Why Balance Of Payments Matter: A Chartbook

In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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