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United States

Geopolitics, Q3

Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to stumble. Investors should book some profits in anticipation of tariff implementation and a downturn in hard economic data.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
The UST/Bund Spread Is On The Move Again

Volatility is back in UST/Bund spreads. We unpack what’s driving the moves and explain what we are watching for tactical opportunities in the UST/Bund spread.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
ISM Confirms Sluggish Growth And Fading Inflation Impulse
The June ISM points to sluggish US manufacturing and reinforces long duration positioning amid peaking price pressures. The index rose modestly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, with the rebound driven by slightly higher production and slower supplier deliveries due…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Labor Market On A Knife’s Edge As Hiring Slows In Cyclical Sectors
May JOLTS data suggest labor market softening beneath the surface, reinforcing a defensive stance across portfolios. Job openings rose to 7.7m from 7.4m, beating estimates, while quits ticked up to 3.3m and layoffs fell to 1.6m. However, hiring edged lower to…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Return Of The Fed

Monetary policy is about to become a powerful tailwind to the already bullish brew that includes Trump’s repeated step-downs from a global trade war, irrelevant geopolitical risks in the Middle East, and a fiscal policy that is no longer as alarming to the bond markets as the raft of campaign promises appears to be. Investors should hesitate to get overly bearish either bonds or stocks. However, we remain uber USD bears. 

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
US Beta Rallies On Tech, Not Cyclical Optimism
Tech-led momentum is driving the S&P 500 to new highs despite weak growth and rising cyclical risks. The rally has accelerated following a de-escalation in geopolitical tensions and ongoing hopes for positive trade developments. Momentum signals confirm…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Sluggish Growth + Stable Delivery Times = Contained Inflation
Regional Fed surveys confirm sluggish US manufacturing and tame inflation, supporting long duration positioning outside the US. The June Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey missed expectations, rising to -12.7 from -15.3, still deep in contraction. New orders…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Pay Attention To US Swap Spreads
Our US Bond strategists expect a modest narrowing of the Treasury/OIS spread, supporting a cyclical long-duration stance and 2s10s steepeners. Over the past year, the spread has added roughly 30 bps to the 10-year Treasury yield, driven by factors such as…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Weekly Screeners: UK Value And Safety, French Discretionary, And US Value And Income

This week our three screeners explore: UK stocks that are cheap and offer a geopolitical hedge; French stocks that are sensitive to China; and US Value and dividend paying stocks. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
Defensive Stance Justified As Hard Data Softens
Weak consumption data and deteriorating labor market signals reinforce our defensive stance. The May US Personal Income & Outlays report showed real personal spending declining 0.3% m/m, missing expectations, while core PCE inflation came in slightly…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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