The Bank Credit Analyst

Monthly Report

August 2018

26 Jul 2018

by Marko Papic, Chief GeoMacro Strategist

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Contents

Executive Summary / Insight
Powell Isn't Arthur Burns
The U.S. Yield Curve: A Red Flag?
Trade War Hitting Economy?
Late Cycle Investing
When Will U.S. Margins Peak?
Conclusions:
Trade Channels
Targeted Sectors:
Market Reaction
Determining The Winners And Losers
Joint Ventures And FDI
Conclusions:
Appendix Table II-1
Appendix Table II-2
Appendix Table II-3
Appendix Table II-4
EQUITIES:
FIXED INCOME:
CURRENCIES:
COMMODITIES:
ECONOMY:

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Topics covered

Asset Allocation Trade Trade / BOP Commodities & Energy Sector Economy Financial Markets Monetary Policy Protectionism/Competitive devaluation Developed Countries Energy United States Oil Yield Curve Currencies Equities Fixed Income Sectors Global