Global
Markets have seen a series of supply shocks in recent years, from Covid to Ukraine to tariffs to the Iran war.
How will these shocks evolve going forward? Should investors care more about new tariffs or the Strait of Hormuz?
Our EM strategists recommend positioning for another USD downleg by staying short the dollar versus KRW, JPY, TWD, SGD, and EUR, while buying gold mining stocks. Rising US Treasury yields should initially pressure equities, but over a 9-12 month horizon,…
Our Global Investment strategists argue that China must lower national savings to reduce investment without increasing unemployment. China does not produce too much; it spends too little. Malinvestment is a genuine problem, but it reflects the deeper…
Our clients expect sticky inflation to persist. Last week’s client poll saw a clear majority expecting inflation to stay sticky near current levels over the next 12 months. The conclusions were similar across clients and social media respondents. The…
The dollar is now far more dependent on foreign equity inflows than it was in the late Bretton Woods era, leaving it vulnerable if capital inflows weaken. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief EM/China Strategist. Arthur draws a…
Our Global Investment strategists see US profit margins deteriorating next year. They expect margins to stay elevated through the rest of 2026, helped by robust business sales, muted real wage gains, and the AI capex boom. Beyond that, the picture dims. A…
The Goldilocks environment for US profit margins should start to sour next year. Contrary to conventional wisdom, AI could end up eroding margins for both producers and consumers of artificial intelligence.
Our Global Investment strategists see the equity bull market entering its late stages and expect bonds to do well once growth slows. Lower oil prices and heavy AI capital spending should support the global economy through the rest of 2026, but our colleagues…
Our FX strategists expect the global reserve system to grow less dollar-centric. This will benefit a widening set of smaller fiat currencies rather than any single successor to the USD. The dollar's share of global reserves has fallen more than five…
The equity bull market is getting long in the tooth. Bonds should perform well once economic growth begins to slow. The dollar will strengthen over the coming months before resuming its downtrend. While crude has likely found a near-term floor, we favor metals over energy in the long run.