Gabriel Gosselin
Research Associate
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Value Destruction And Creation In The AI Capex Boom
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on the S&P 500 but expect the AI capex boom to divide Tech between hyperscalers and neoclouds. Robust EPS growth, cloud revenues and backlogs herald continued AI investment, supporting our colleagues’ 8100…
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China And EM Profitability: A Floor, Not A Launch Pad
Our EM strategists see no case for structural EM equity outperformance and recommend a neutral allocation within global equity portfolios. Outside semiconductor producers and financials, EM profitability sits well below that of US peers and the levels reached…
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Sweden's Upside Inflation Surprise Won't Move the Riksbank
July's upside surprise in Swedish core inflation should not derail an on-hold Riksbank. Headline CPIF eased to 0.7% y/y (-0.3% m/m), broadly in line with estimates. CPIF excluding energy accelerated to 0.6% y/y (0.4% m/m), above both economists’ estimates and…
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Only The Ayatollah And Putin Can Save The Bears Now
Our GeoMacro strategists stay overweight equities, expecting the bull market to run further. The July earnings season has confirmed the AI capex engine is still running hot, just as Iran-US tensions peaked. Cloud revenue at the three largest hyperscalers grew…
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The AI Capex ROI Is Showing Up
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists see the return on AI capex now becoming visible in reported results, clearing the way for the bull market to move higher. Investors have stayed deeply skeptical about the profitability of the buildout, yet Q2 earnings…
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Digging For Quality: The Case For Goldminers
Our US Equity strategists are going long GDX as both a gold-linked hedge and a quality story. Gold and miners have corrected 25% from January highs, creating an interesting entry point. Our colleagues see further upside for gold if the cyclical backdrop…
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Gold’s Selloff Is Getting Long In The Tooth
Our FICC and Geopolitical strategists argue that gold's selloff is nearing its end and recommend going long with a stop at $3900 an ounce. Real rates and the dollar have reasserted themselves as bullion's primary drivers this year, and our colleagues expect…
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What To Watch
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Private Credit’s Doomsday
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists push back on the view that Private Credit is the next Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Pundits have made that call for years and have been proven wrong every time. Our colleagues’ three-criteria framework tests…
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Inflation Undershoots Means No Rush For The RBA
Australia's softer-than-expected Q2 inflation report reinforces the case for a RBA hold. While trimmed mean CPI, the RBA's preferred underlying measure, edged up to 3.6% y/y from 3.5%, it undershot consensus and the RBA's own forecast. The quarterly rate held…