Capex

European equities have surged on hopes of a low-inflation boom—but the rally has likely gone too far, too fast. With a pullback now likely, how should investors position themselves over the next 3–6 months?

The South African government seems to believe that some fiscal retrenchment can stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio. But that’s a misconception. The country will need draconian spending cuts to achieve this.

Colombian financial markets have rallied on the expectation that a right-wing government will be elected in 2026. We take a contrarian bearish stance on the nation's financial markets. Colombia is suffering from two structural macro issues – unsustainable public debt and plunging energy exports – that will not be easily solved by a conservative administration in 2026. Continue underweighting Colombia within EM equity and fixed-income portfolios, continue shorting the COP versus the USD and the CLP, and bet on yield curve steepening.

The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s terminal rate. Read our full report for actionable insights.