Consumer
US job openings declined from a downwardly revised 7.91 million to 7.67 million in July, the lowest level since 2021 and well short of expectations of 8.1 million. The downward revision indicates that labor demand actually declined in June, when it was…
The Q2 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Nearly 80% (60%) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q2, according to Factset. Excluding Materials and Real…
Our annual end-of-summer chartbook report traces the labor market deterioration that led us to downgrade equities at the beginning of August. It also highlights the soft-landing expectations that the credit and equity markets are discounting. We like the risk-reward profile of our newly defensive stance.
US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a 16-year-low of 2.9%. …
US GDP was unexpectedly revised higher to 3.0% q/q annualized in Q2, from 2.8% previously estimated. A significant upward revision to consumer spending (2.9% from 2.3% against expectations of a downward revision) largely offset weaker growth in other…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This inversion is still a ways from normalizing, with labor demand…
US housing market data have been mixed. In June, the FHFA House Price index unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m and the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly eased to 39 from a 41 reading. In July, starts and permits both disappointed, contracting 6.8% and 4.0%…
During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly after the Fed began cutting…
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to 134.4, while their expectations about the…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will come to fruition. This Nordic country…