Developed Countries
USD/CNY’s break above 7.3 signals more downside is in store for the yuan, supporting short high-beta FX and long CHF and JPY positions. The CNY has weakened in 2025 even as the US dollar has depreciated against most major currencies and gold. USD/CNY…
Our European strategists recommend staying defensive in the near term. Favor bonds over equities and defensives over cyclicals, as President Trump’s tariffs are set to push the Eurozone into recession by mid-2025. Industrial production, capital spending, and…
The sharp drop in March’s NFIB survey reinforces our defensive asset allocation, as small business sentiment weakens amid rising policy uncertainty. We remain overweight government bonds and underweight risk assets, while tactically shorting the January 2026…
Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.
We maintain our defensive positioning as risk assets remain in a lose-lose situation. Monday’s trading session was volatile, and saw a brief rebound on a false headline about a 90-day tariff pause excluding China. The rally partially reversed as the White…
Canada’s difficult macro outlook is already priced, supporting a neutral stance on Canadian government bonds within a global fixed-income portfolio. We continue to recommend a small long CAD/USD position, where bad news is well priced and the reward-to-risk…
Our Commodities strategists remain defensively positioned, recommending a long gold versus oil and copper trade over a cyclical timeframe. While gold may correct near term, it still offers safe-haven appeal in the face of rising policy uncertainty.Silver is…
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
Private Equity’s cash flow problem is showing up in the job market. In August 2024, our Chief Private Markets & Alternatives Strategist Brian Payne highlighted how hard it had become for Private Equity firms to return money to their investors, setting the…