Developed Countries
January’s flash PMIs for the major developed markets showed that manufacturing contracted at a slower pace and service activity continues to display significant regional differences. Moreover, the performance gap between the US and its DM peers…
Our Global Investment strategists believe the US economy is in a more precarious position than investors realize. A slowdown in growth could raise unemployment, while stronger activity may heighten inflation worries. The economic momentum seen in late…
Despite the choppy price action of the last few weeks, equity sentiment remains elevated. Surveys of investor sentiment remain at the top end of the bullish spectrum, and the S&P 500 is trading over 22x forward earnings, levels only seen in the…
Our Foreign Exchange strategists recently provided an update on their US and Australian dollar views. The US dollar remains overbought and may continue rising as a momentum currency, but cyclical indicators suggest a capitulation phase. Our FX team…
The Magnificent 7 have a leg up on AI investments over the rest of the market. Although the future impact of AI on productivity and profits is still debated, current tech stocks valuations reflect great optimism that AI indeed will be massively accretive to…
Sentiment will stay positive for now, but downside risks are rising. Investors should proceed cautiously in stock picking and portfolio construction at this juncture, given rising economic and policy uncertainty, which threaten market sentiment, and more broadly, the current bull-market.
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.493m a month prior. The…
Our US Political strategists published a Special Report on the trade and fiscal policies likely to be implemented on Day One as the Trump administration takes over Washington. Trump is likely to implement significant tariffs early in his term,…