Economic Growth

In the absence of official government data, investors are turning to alternative sources to gauge the direction of the US economy. Our analysis of this data suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace over the past two months. If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tariffs, this would reduce the near-term odds of a recession while raising the odds of overheating.

By tracing patterns across China’s past three Five-Year Plans, we reveal how policy cycles shape markets—and what investors should expect in the next five years.

The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.

Investors should not count on buoyant growth in the ASEAN and Indian economies because of manufacturing relocation away from China in the next couple of years.