Economic Growth
January’s flash PMIs for the major developed markets showed that manufacturing contracted at a slower pace and service activity continues to display significant regional differences. Moreover, the performance gap between the US and its DM peers…
While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of our GeoMacro Strategy service. Marko has argued that the most important macro story over the past decade has been the transition from the Washington Consensus, promoting fiscal conservatism, to…
Chinese activity was decent in December, with GDP growth topping the 5% target for 2024. Industrial production growth ticked up to 6.2% y/y from 5.4% in November. Retail sales also picked up, increasing to 3.7% from 3.0% a month prior. New and used home…
US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.493m a month prior. The…
Our Emerging Markets strategists just published a report on Singapore stocks after a significant rally over the past year. Singapore’s manufacturing sector faces headwinds from contracting global new orders, which signals that a recovery in exports is…
The December US CPI came in better than expected. While headline CPI met estimates of 0.4% m/m (2.9% y/y), core surprised to the downside at 0.2% m/m, decelerating to 3.2% y/y from 3.3%. Moderation in core annual inflation was driven by both goods, which are…