Economy
The August NFIB survey shows a fragile US economy with disinflationary signals and weak employment, supporting our defensive stance. The Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8 from 100.3, a six-month high, though still below December 2024 levels. Much of…
Despite the post-election selloff, investors should continue buying Argentine assets on weakness. Argentine markets sold off sharply after President Milei’s party suffered a crushing defeat in Sunday’s Buenos Aires election. Investors did not expect the…
Australia’s NAB survey shows underlying resilience, reinforcing our underweight on ACGBs and the case for AUD flatteners vs. CAD steepeners. The August survey was mixed, with current conditions improving to 7 from 5, while business confidence softened to 4…
Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey points to stabilization; JGBs remain unattractive and the yen’s near-term setup is less favorable versus USD. The August survey modestly beat expectations, with the current component rising to 46.7 from 45.2 and expectations…
Stable long-term inflation expectations and weak labor perceptions support a defensive stance. The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed 1-year inflation expectations ticking up to 3.2% in August, while the 3-year (3.0%) and 5-year (2.9%)…
A fleeting greenback rally post Fed rate cut will offer a final chance to reset short dollar exposures. See why undervalued Asian FX are poised to lead the next leg lower in USD and how to position now.
The August US employment report confirmed a significant labor market deceleration, keeping us modestly defensive. Nonfarm payrolls rose just 22k after 79k in July, while net revisions subtracted 21k from prior months. The 3-month average slowed to 29k,…
Canada’s August jobs report confirms the economy remains weak, supporting Canadian bonds and CAD steepeners. Employment fell by 66k, driven by declines in both part-time (-60k) and full-time (-6k) positions, against expectations for a modest gain. The…
The August employment report showed a modest increase in labor market slack, enough to cement a 25-basis-point rate cut this month.
Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two, however, we are worried about stagflation.