Economy
Our China Investment Strategy team explored how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, US importers, and consumers. The inflationary impact of new US tariffs is likely to remain modest unless President Trump imposes…
Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps as expected to 0.50%, or a 17-year high. The BoJ is currently the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures. Additionally, the BoJ signaled a…
January’s flash PMIs for the major developed markets showed that manufacturing contracted at a slower pace and service activity continues to display significant regional differences. Moreover, the performance gap between the US and its DM peers…
While the US economy could remain upright on the tightrope for a while longer, it will inevitably fall, leading to a major bear market in stocks. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive. We are not there yet.
Our US Equity strategists preview the 2024 Q4 earnings season, and look at the results from banks. Q4 earnings growth is set to impress, with small and mid-cap earnings surging and S&P 493 growth turning positive, though energy, industrials,…
East Asian trade data was mixed in December and January. Taiwanese export orders for December were stronger than expected, rebounding to 20.8% y/y from 3.3% in November. On the other hand, Korean exports for the first 20 days of January fell 5.1% y/y, after…
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
The January ZEW index for Germany missed estimates, with expectations falling to 10.3 from 15.7 in December. However, the euro area level index ticked up to 18 from 17 a month prior. Measures of current conditions also rose. The lack of momentum for…
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…