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Emerging Markets

Buy Mexican Domestic Bonds
Banxico’s dovish stance reinforces our bullish view on Mexican local currency debt. The Mexican central bank cut interest rates by another 50 basis points to 8%.  The central bank will continue easing monetary policy well into next year. Slower US…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana
Dilution: The Silent Drag On Equity Returns (Part 1)
Our Emerging Markets strategists highlight that systematic equity dilution has meaningfully eroded EM shareholder returns, explaining the long-term disconnect between profit growth and EPS. Over the past 18 years, EM companies have more than doubled their…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Third Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Waiting For The Whites Of The Recession’s Eyes

Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Dilution: The Silent Drag On Equity Returns (Part 1)
Special Report

Dilution is one of the two main reasons why EM EPS has been much weaker than EM GDP and EM non-diluted profits. We calculate “pure” dilution – adjusted for companies’ inclusion and exclusion from the stock index – for various bourses around the world. To our knowledge, this is the first time this analysis has been conducted.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Arthur Budaghyan, Lucas Laskey
Reassessing EM Profits
BCA’s EM strategists remain downbeat on EM equities despite a bearish US dollar view, citing profit headwinds and limited valuation support. The ongoing EM earnings recovery has been narrowly concentrated in TMT sectors across China, Taiwan, and Korea,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Israel-Iran: The Tipping Point

Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.

Geopolitical Strategy, Commodity & Energy Strategy by Matt Gertken
Chinese Equities: Between Hopes And Headwinds
BCA’s China Investment strategists see limited upside for Chinese equities and favor bonds, as trade tensions ease but domestic headwinds persist. This week’s US-China trade talks in London lowered the risk of near-term escalation or new retaliatory tariffs,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Israel-Iran Tensions Enter A Dangerous Phase
The Israel-Iran conflict is escalating, raising the odds of a major oil supply shock and reinforcing the case for cash, US equity overweight, and tactical energy exposure. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US-China Trade De-Escalation Won’t Drive New Highs
The US-China tariff deal confirms one thing: markets are still priced for perfection, with little upside even if a recession is dodged. The London negotiations yielded a partial agreement: The US will reduce tariffs, and China will remove export restrictions…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Brazil: Peaking Inflation Will Not Lead To Rate Cuts
The May Brazilian CPI suggests that price pressures may have reached a peak, but do not expect immediate monetary easing to support fixed income markets. Headline CPI slowed to 5.3% y/y from 5.5% April, but core CPI remained flat at 6.1%.  Despite…
Daily Insights by Juan Egana

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