India
BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, but the conviction is not the same everywhere.
India is probably the most vulnerable among the G-20 economies should the Strait of Hormuz not reopen fully by the end of this month. Growth will slow, while inflation will rise materially. Investors should brace for further weakness in the currency and stock prices.
India is seeing net capital outflows for the first time in a generation. The central bank is selling foreign reserves to defend the rupee, which is draining banking system liquidity. The latter risks derailing the nascent credit revival. Indian stock prices remain vulnerable.
