Fixed Income

Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.

The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for next year is Thin Is Back In. Government budgets, economic growth, and equity valuations will be leaner than investors expect. We discuss this the reasoning behind this macro view and the asset allocation implications that follow from it.

This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions.