Inflation/Deflation
RBA minutes confirmed a cautious approach to easing, reinforcing our underweight in ACGBs and long AUD/NZD stance. The decision to hold at 3.85% surprised markets expecting a 25 bps cut. Governor Bullock had framed the decision as one of timing, but…
Rising political pressure on the Fed risks undermining policy credibility, risking a de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations. The Trump administration keeps escalating attacks on Fed Chair Powell. While the Fed cannot ease proactively amid…
The Q2 Business Outlook Survey showed weaker sentiment and subdued hiring and investment intentions, reinforcing the case for deeper BoC rate cuts and our overweight in Canadian bonds. The BOS indicator ticked down to -2.4 from -2.1 in Q1, with net future…
The Upper House loss of Japan’s ruling coalition reflects growing political uncertainty, reinforcing our underweight in JGBs and bullish stance on the yen. The LDP-led ruling coalition has lost control of both houses of parliament for the first time…
Consumer sentiment improved modestly in July, but remains at levels that still point to subdued spending, reinforcing our defensive stance. The preliminary University of Michigan index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 in June. Expectations edged up to 58.6, while…
The July Philly Fed beat expectations with broad improvement in activity, but low growth, inventory buildup and margin pressure remains a risk for equities. The headline index rose to 15.9 from -4.0 in June. New orders, shipments, and employment all…
Beijing’s supply-side push faces steeper hurdles than in 2016. With limited demand support and tighter constraints on cutting capacity, today’s reforms are unlikely to pack the same punch.
June UK CPI surprised to the upside, but weakening leading indicators point to disinflation ahead. Stay overweight Gilts. Headline inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y from 3.4%, and core rose to 3.7% from 3.5%. Services inflation held at 4.7%, also above…
Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment.
June CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with tariff passthrough building in goods but broader inflation pressures likely to remain contained. Headline inflation came in slightly above expectations at 2.7% y/y (0.3% m/m), while core matched estimates…