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Inflation/Deflation

The Global Inflation Divergence
The inflation divergence between the US and Eurozone drives our call to stay long US duration. Inflation, typically a lagging indicator, blends slow-moving labor pressures with fast-moving supply drivers. The COVID inflation spike was a rare fusion of both,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Riksbank: A Dangerous Wait-And-See Approach
The Riksbank’s cautious stance sets up a dovish pivot, reinforcing our long Swedish bonds view and SEK fade vs. USD. The central bank held rates at 2.25% for the second time this year, with Governor Thedéen describing policy as well-balanced despite rising…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Türkiye: Erdogan's Decline
Special Report

Erdogan's rule continues to decline. Social unrest will persist, governance will erode, and the macro backdrop will deteriorate further. We recommend underweighting Turkish assets. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma
Inflation Focus Keeps The Fed Tight Despite Soft Data Collapse
The Fed’s tight policy stance and focus on hard data reinforce our US Bond strategists’ call for above-benchmark duration and Treasury curve steepeners. As expected, the Fed held rates between 4.25% to 4.5% and flagged heightened uncertainty and two-sided…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Transitory … For Real This Time

The Fed held rates steady this afternoon, and the timing of its next move will be dictated by whether the tariff shock to inflation is transitory or more long lasting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
European Inflation Surprise Unlikely To Deter ECB Cuts
April’s Eurozone inflation data supports BCA’s bullish Bund stance and cautious view on EUR/USD. Headline HICP inflation held steady at 2.2% y/y while core ticked up to 2.7% from 2.4%. Services inflation rebounded to 3.9%, driven by temporary…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
BoJ Stays Dovish as Japan’s Inflation Stands Apart
The Bank of Japan’s dovish hold does not contradict BCA’s underweight JGBs and long JPY recommendations. The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for a second meeting, but slashed its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Nevertheless, the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Conference Board Survey Flags Labor Market Softening
The April Conference Board survey adds to signs of labor market softening, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. The Consumer Confidence index fell for the fifth consecutive month to 86.0 from 92.9. Expectations plunged to their lowest since 2011.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Deflation Takes Hold: Stay Long Bonds As The ECB Cuts

Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and EUR/USD.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Testing Time

Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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