Japan

Tariff Frontrunning Distorts Global Trade

East Asian trade data has been disappointing. Preliminary February data for Japanese machine tool orders showed a slowdown to 3.5% y/y from 4.7% in January. Broader machinery orders were down 3.5% m/m in January. Taiwanese exports orders were up an abnormal…

1 year ago

DM Asia Pacific Trade / BOP Global

FICC

The BoJ Versus The BoE: Battle Of The Central Banks

Given the meetings between the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank, our highest convictions views are:
Overweight UK Gilts. It is also time to sell sterling. We are short sterling, as of 1.30.
Underweight JGBs. Correspondingly, be long the yen.
A short CHF/JPY position remains a core holding. Selling GBP/JPY is also a great trade.

1 year ago

Currencies Bonds Japan

Essentials

BoJ Holds, Remains On Watch For Global Headwinds

The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at 0.50%, but maintained a hawkish bias, making it the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures.  More rate increases are likely this year as…

1 year ago

Japan Monetary Policy Inflation

CoreMacro

Trump Slump To Get A Temporary Reprieve

The Trump slump is nearing a temporary reprieve, with a playable countertrend rally in stocks and a tactical rebound in the dollar. Go tactically long USD/SEK. For long-term investors though, the AI bubble still has a lot of air to come out.

1 year ago

Tariffs Equities Technological Advances

Essentials

Tokyo CPI Remains Hot

The February Tokyo CPI print came in slightly cooler than expected. Headline inflation moderated to 2.9% y/y from 3.4%, while “core core” was steady at 1.9%. The Tokyo CPI gives an advance reading on national price pressures, and the data suggests…

1 year ago

Japan Inflation Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

CoreMacro

‘Mini-Stagflation’ Will End With A Financial Shock

The US (and the UK) is staring down the barrel of a ‘mini-stagflation’ until a deflationary shock arrives to neutralise it. We describe a likely source for the deflationary shock and list three investment conclusions that are valid irrespective of how long it takes for the deflationary shock to arrive. Plus: RCI.B is deeply oversold and ripe for a rebound.

1 year ago

UK Japan

Essentials

Chinese Tech Stocks: Is The DeepSeek Hype Sustainable?

Our China strategists assessed the outlook for Chinese stocks in the aftermath of the DeepSeek hype. DeepSeek’s innovations will boost China’s productivity and technological advancement but are unlikely to create a strong competitive moat for large…

1 year ago

Japan Equities AI and Markets

CoreMacro

2025 Key Views: 1st Quarter Update

In this webcast, Dhaval will give an update on his key views for 2025. The discussion will include: Why the US is heading into ‘mini stagflation’. Why the BoJ must hike interest rates, and the global consequences. The outlook for global bond yields and the dollar. The latest advances to our complexity analysis and indicators. When the bull market will end.

1 year ago

Asset Allocation Global

Essentials

Japan: Strong Q4 GDP Points To Further BoJ Hikes

Preliminary estimates of Q4 real GDP growth in Japan was stronger than expected, rising to 2.8% q/q annualized from 1.7% in Q3. Domestic demand remained strong, and the GDP deflator increased to 2.8% y/y. Japan’s economy is running hot, sustaining price…

1 year ago

Japan Business Cycles Economic Growth

Essentials

Tokyo CPI: Strong Price Pressures Remain

The January Tokyo CPI came in stronger than expected, with headline inflation accelerating to 3.4% y/y from 3.0%, and “core core” (ex. fresh food and energy) accelerating to 1.9% from 1.8%. The jobless rate also decreased 0.1% to 2.4% in…

1 year ago

Japan Monetary Policy Economy

Japan

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