Manufacturing

The Dallas Fed survey points to Texas manufacturing continuing to expand in May, but with slowing momentum. The production index fell 10 points to 9.4, signaling an average pace of output growth rather than a broad acceleration. The softer tone showed up…

3 months ago

US Manufacturing Economy

FICC

Hot Enough To Hike?

The April CPI report showed clear evidence of the direct effect of higher oil prices on inflation but, so far, limited evidence of passthrough to core.

3 months ago

Bonds US Economy

Essentials

Chinese Inflation: Not A Demand Story

Chinese inflation surprised to the upside, but the rise reflects higher energy prices rather than stronger demand. CPI rose 1.2% y/y versus 0.9% expected, while PPI was the bigger surprise at 2.8% y/y, almost double consensus. The PPI move matters more…

3 months ago

China Inflation Manufacturing

CoreMacro

Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy To Crash

The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June.

4 months ago

Global Oil Economy

Essentials

ISM: A Whiff Of Stagflation

The April ISM Manufacturing report was flat on the headline, but softer on growth and hotter on inflation underneath. The index held at 52.7, missing estimates. Despite the unchanged headline, the underlying signals pointed to mild growth deterioration. New…

4 months ago

US Manufacturing Economy

Essentials

US: Sentiment Cracks, Production Doesn’t

The April Dallas Fed survey missed estimates, but underlying activity remained firmer than the headline suggested. The manufacturing headline index fell to -2.3 from -0.2. Comments were mixed, but respondents broadly pointed to slower sales due to uncertainty…

4 months ago

US Manufacturing Economy

Essentials

Philly Fed Confirms Resilience

The April Philly Fed survey beat estimates and pointed to resilient manufacturing activity despite the energy shock. The headline index rose to 26.7 from 18.1. New orders and shipments were strong and both increased. Labor signals were mixed, as the…

4 months ago

US Manufacturing Inflation

Essentials

Empire Holds, Expectations Slip

The April Empire survey beat estimates and pointed to modestly improving activity alongside rising price pressures. The headline index rose to 11 from -0.2 in March. New orders and shipments increased significantly. Employment measures also improved, with…

4 months ago

US Manufacturing Economy

FICC

Past Peak Tariff Impact

This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.

7 months ago

Bonds US Inflation

CoreMacro

Dispatches From the Future (January 2, 2027): The Return Of Nasdog

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also host a Webcast for APAC on Tuesday, December 16 at 8:00 PM EST (9:00 AM HKT+1 day).

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2026. We will be back on Friday, January 2 with our MacroQuant Model Update.

8 months ago

Global Economy Financial Markets

Manufacturing

Related Topics