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Monetary

European central banks are pivoting quickly amid deflationary pressure, reinforcing our long UK Gilts and short GBP trades. The Norges Bank surprised with a 25 bps cut to 4.25%, abandoning its hawkish stance. The Swiss National Bank cut by 25 bps to 0%, in…

In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank. 

While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.

The ECB’s expected rate cut to 2% marks a slower easing phase, capping Bund yields. The shift to a quarterly pace of cuts, barring surprises, confirms a more gradual approach despite ongoing disinflation and weak growth. Staff projections downgraded inflation…

India's IT service exports have been booming and will continue to do so despite wider AI usage. Indian IT stocks, however, will not benefit from it as the expanding Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India compete with the nation’s IT companies, driving the latter's profitability down.

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.75% but signaled a dovish shift, pushing us to overweight Canadian government bonds and go long CORRA futures. The policy rate remains within the BoC’s neutral range, allowing the Bank to wait for more clarity on trade…
Ongoing military tensions between Ukraine and Rusia and renewed US-EU trade friction reinforce tactical opportunities to add European exposure on dips. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian air assets and the limited outcome of the latest Istanbul talks point to…
The RBNZ’s dovish stance will weigh on bond yields and the currency. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%, building on 225 basis points worth of easing since August 2024. New Zealand’s central bank is signaling one…

This Insight looks at the implications of the RBNZ’s rate cut on New Zealand assets. 

Special Report

We perform a decomposition of yields moves across six major developed government bond markets to get to the bottom of what’s been driving the global bond selloff of the past eight months.