Monetary

Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook raises Fed-independence risks, reinforcing steepener trades. The announcement, aimed at expanding presidential control over the central bank, saw equities fall and bonds initially rally on the prospect of more cuts…

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was misread, and points to cautious dovishness. Some commentators called it hawkish, others suggested the Fed abandoned its 2% target. Neither is accurate. Central bank communication is rarely binary; it operates across…

The post-Liberation Day rally has broadened, reducing skepticism and strengthening the case for US outperformance versus Europe. The S&P 500’s climb to all-time highs has been unusually smooth, compressing realized volatility and pulling the VIX…

Canada’s fragile growth backdrop reinforces the case for more BoC easing than markets price. June retail sales rose 1.5% m/m, in line with expectations. Excluding autos, sales were stronger at 1.9%. However, the advance estimate for July points to a 0.8%…

Powell’s final Jackson Hole speech signaled a dovish tilt, opening the door to a September cut. The Fed is under pressure to balance unemployment and inflation risks, with the FOMC split between “proactive” doves and “reactive” hawks. Recent data have not…

Indonesia’s surprise rate cut signals a dovish turn that will weigh on the rupiah. Bank Indonesia cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 5%, with low inflation and weak activity pointing to more easing ahead. Our Emerging Markets team’s proprietary super core…

FOMC minutes showed broad support to hold in July, but the committee remains divided between proactive doves and reactive hawks. “Almost all members” favored leaving the funds rate unchanged, though two dissented for an immediate 25 bps cut. Doves want…

The Riksbank held at 2.0% as core inflation remains above target, though easing pressures are building. July headline inflation had slightly cooled, but core remains above both the bank’s forecast and the 1-3% target band. Inflation drivers point to…

South African inflation will remain at the bottom of the SARB target range, allowing further easing. July CPI came in line with expectations at 3.5% y/y, with core at 3.0%. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect the central bank to keep cutting in…

July’s softer Canadian inflation, set against lingering macro weakness, reinforces the case for more BoC easing than markets are currently pricing. Headline CPI slowed to 1.7% y/y from 1.9%, below expectations, driven by lower gasoline prices. The BoC’s…