United States

We look at President Trump’s first mandate for lessons on how markets would likely react to different policies. On the fiscal front, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the first pro-cyclical stimulus in decades. Markets pushed back, as the early 2018…

1 year ago

Elections Trade Policy/Protectionism Tariffs

Essentials

US Rates: More On Value And Timing

Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market.  The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury yields now offer an attractive…

1 year ago

Monetary Policy Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys Inflation

CoreMacro

Trump Day One: Threats And Opportunities For Europe

President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.

1 year ago

Europe Euro Equities

Essentials

Trump’s Inauguration

Our US Political strategists published a Special Report on the trade and fiscal policies likely to be implemented on Day One as the Trump administration takes over Washington. Trump is likely to implement significant tariffs early in his term,…

1 year ago

Trump's Policies Trade Tariffs

Essentials

Is The Fiscal Gravy Train Over?

Our Chart Of The Week comes from Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of our GeoMacro Strategy service. Marko has argued that the most important macro story over the past decade has been the transition from the Washington Consensus, promoting fiscal conservatism, to…

1 year ago

Economic Growth Fiscal Policy United States

Essentials

Is US Housing Finding A Bottom?

US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.493m a month prior. The…

1 year ago

Consumer Economy Monetary Policy

FICC

More On Value And Timing

We examine Treasury market valuation and look for indicators that could help us time the next peak in yields. We also update the forecasts from our Treasury yield model.

1 year ago

Bonds United States Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Equities

Weekly Screeners: Trumpflation, Low-Beta US Stocks, Singapore Setback

This week, our screeners cover views on Trump 2.0, defensive US equity sectors, and a pullback in Singapore equities. Our first screener aims to hedge longer term inflation risks that Trump 2.0 will likely generate, targeting US equities that are highly correlated with future inflation expectations. Our second screener identifies several defensive sectors that are worth consideration, in case of a tactical pullback in US equities. Lastly, we pick out Singapore stocks that are cheap and high safety, should a pullback occur in the local bourse given weakening macro and technical conditions.

1 year ago

Equity Analyzer

Essentials

An Uninspiring Retail Sales Report

December US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number printing at 0.4% m/m, a decline from an upwardly revised 0.8% in November. On the positive side, the control group beat estimates at 0.7%. Netting it all out, the report was uninspiring,…

1 year ago

Inflation/Deflation Consumer United States

Essentials

Philly Fed Index: Signal Or Noise?

The January Philly Fed Manufacturing index blew past estimates, soaring to 44.3 vs. a revised 10.9 points contraction in December. Most subcomponents rose for both the current and expected categories. Measures of prices paid and received also ticked…

1 year ago

Manufacturing Policy Consumer

United States

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