United States
Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review.
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists upheld their yearly tradition of putting together reading or listening recommendations for the holiday period. This year, our strategists and research teams sent their best recommendations for academic work that has…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, came in below expectations at 0.1% m/m in November, remaining steady at 2.8% y/y. The monthly advance was the lowest since May. The inflation deceleration was broad-based. Core services inflation increased…
In this webcast, Dhaval will discuss the most important things about 2025 that people are NOT talking about… yet
US November housing data was mixed, but still reflected a weak picture. Housing starts were down 1.8% m/m, below expectations of a 2.6% increase. However, building permits were stronger than expected, increasing 6.1%. Units under construction remain in free…
Our Global Fixed Income and FX strategists published their 2025 outlook, and provide five key views for the year ahead. Duration revival: After three years of underperformance versus cash, government bonds will outperform in either a soft-landing…
The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 25 bps to a 4.25%-4.5% range, as expected. However, it was a “hawkish cut”; the FOMC signaled a slower pace of easing ahead. The statement signalled less urgency, saying the “extent and timing” for further cuts…
November retail sales were roughly in line with expectations, with headline growth at 0.7% m/m vs. 0.4% in October. Vehicle sales were solid. Excluding auto and gas, sales rose a more modest 0.2% m/m, below expectations. The control group grew 0.4% m/m after…
The December Empire Manufacturing index missed expectations, slowing to 0.2 from 31.2 in November. Most cyclical components eased, suggesting last month's surge was a post-election blip. The new orders subcomponent decreased, leaving the new…