Canada
Bonds are failing to deliver defensive convexity; asset allocators should look to tactical curve steepeners for protection. Despite rising growth fears, Treasury yields have risen sharply at the long end. This is a clear break from the typical recession…
Canada’s difficult macro outlook is already priced, supporting a neutral stance on Canadian government bonds within a global fixed-income portfolio. We continue to recommend a small long CAD/USD position, where bad news is well priced and the reward-to-risk…
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
February Canadian headline inflation was stronger than expected, rising to 2.6% y/y from 1.9% in January. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were also slightly hotter than expected, both rising to 2.9% from 2.7% a month prior, near the top of the BoC’s…
Our Global Fixed Income team wrote a primer on the Canadian provincial bond market, an overlooked yet substantial market. Canadian provincial bonds are a major segment of the country's fixed income market, with spreads primarily driven by fiscal…
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 2.75% as expected. This seventh consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range. The BoC is in a tough place. The trade war will ultimately be…
The trade war complicates the Bank of Canada’s task to achieve stable inflation. But the bottom line is that rising uncertainty, which will dampen business sentiment, will cause the BoC to cut rates by at least what is priced in the CORRA curve, and likely to 2%. The CAD, which is very oversold, might not depreciate much. The big trade is a bet on a spread widening for Canadian provincial bonds.
In this report, we explore the Canadian provincial bond market by developing a model to analyze its main drivers and understand the impact of a potential trade war between Canada and the US.
Our GeoMacro and Global Investment strategists crunched the numbers to determine what the world owes the US for its security commitments. The US administration views trade deficits and defense commitments as interconnected, justifying broad-based…
January Canadian headline inflation was in line with estimates at 1.9% y/y. The Bank of Canada’s core measures were slightly hotter than expected, rising to 2.7%, near the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1%-to-3% target range. Canadian inflation remains…