Economy
July data confirm China’s weak growth, with no near-term shift toward meaningful stimulus. New home prices fell 0.31% m/m, retail sales slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.8%, and industrial production eased. Flooding in July disrupted infrastructure spending…
The Indian rupee remains vulnerable to further depreciation amid slowing growth, tight domestic policy, and fragile capital flows. Trade risks and a weakening external balance will likely keep INR underperforming EM Asia peers.
The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.
July US CPI met expectations as leading indicators point to disinflation, supporting our long duration stance and preference for 2s5s steepeners. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (2.7% y/y), while core increased 0.3% m/m and accelerated to 3.1% y/y. Both goods…
The RBA delivered a widely expected cut to 3.6%, but resilient data warrant an ACGBs underweight. The 25 bps cut was the third this year and Governor Bullock’s guidance was consistent with a cut every other meeting, keeping ACGB yields roughly…
This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers.
Our US Equity strategists view Q2 earnings as confirmation of corporate resilience, but caution that the full impact of tariffs is still ahead. Strong results show that companies have weathered tariff-related costs through effective mitigation…
China’s July inflation data confirmed entrenched deflation, reinforcing our defensive stance on Chinese equities and overweight in onshore bonds. CPI slowed to 0% y/y from 0.1%, while factory-gate prices stayed deeply negative at -3.6% y/y. Weak…
Sweden’s July inflation print came in cooler than expected, but core remains too high for an imminent Riksbank cut. CPI rose 0.8% y/y, while CPIF climbed to 3.0% and core CPIF decelerated to 3.1%, still above the Riksbank’s 2.8% July forecast and outside…