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Economy

Trade Truce Lifts Manufacturing Sentiment, But Margin Pressures Persist
The US-China trade truce lifted short-term manufacturing sentiment in May, but margin pressures persist, reinforcing the case for defensive, domestic-focused equity positioning. The Empire and Philly Fed regional manufacturing surveys delivered a split signal…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Why Putin Will Take A Ceasefire
Our Geopolitical strategists expect a Ukraine ceasefire as Russia’s economic weakness compels Putin to shift focus from war to domestic stability. The likely outcome is not peace, but a frozen conflict that enables Russia to consolidate territorial gains…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Shifting Stock/Bond Correlation

Tariff front-running behavior makes the April hard economic data difficult to interpret, but we take the strong reading from Food Services spending as a signal that the US consumer has not yet buckled.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
If 2025 = 2000, Here’s How The Year Unfolds

This year’s plunge in tech stocks followed by the recent strong countertrend rally is eerily reminiscent of 2000. But the market and economic parallels between 2025 and in 2000 run much deeper. This report lists 10 striking parallels between 2025 and 2020, then highlights some important differences, and ends by describing how the rest of 2025 might unfold based on a playbook that is: 2025 = ‘2000 with some tweaks.’

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
UK Labor Weakness Sets Up BoE Dovishness
UK labor market weakness is reinforcing the case for BoE cuts and supporting our overweight in UK Gilts. April payrolls fell by 33k, marking a third consecutive monthly decline, while job vacancies remain below pre-COVID levels for the first time in nearly…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Credit Numbers Show Beijing Aiming For Stability, Not Recovery
China’s weak April credit data reinforces the case for defensive positioning, with policy aimed at stability, not recovery. New yuan loans and aggregate financing both rose less than expected. While credit growth may have bottomed, it remains public-sector…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Soft CPI Won’t Sway A Fed Fighting Tariff Inflation
April’s CPI came in cooler than expected, but tariff-driven supply shocks will keep the Fed tight, supporting long-duration exposure. Headline CPI rose 0.2% m/m (2.3% y/y) while core inflation held steady at 2.8%. Services inflation remained firm at 3.7%, and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Small Businesses Freeze Hiring As Uncertainty Lingers
Small business sentiment remains recessionary, supporting our defensive asset allocation stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell less than expected to 95.8, reinforcing the cratering in soft data witnessed since the election with policy…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Curve Steepener Is The Trade For 2025

A weakening economy will apply downward pressure to Treasury yields, but the Trump term premium will keep long-dated yields higher than they would otherwise be. This makes Treasury curve steepeners the most attractive trade in US fixed income.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Still Heading For A Slowdown Despite US-China Thaw
The US-China trade truce triggered a market rally, but tight policy, lingering inflation risks, and tariff-related drag still support a defensive stance. Risk assets and the USD surged on Monday following the de-escalation announcement, while safe havens…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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