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Iran

On The Long-Term Consequences Of Hormuz
Our clients are split on the Hormuz shock’s long-term consequences. In last week’s poll, we asked what the single biggest long-term consequence would be. BCA clients leaned toward a renewables boom, chosen by 47%, while 24% pointed to inflation entrenchment.…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Iran’s Tipping Point?
Our Commodity strategists expect oil prices to move higher as de-escalation hopes fade and Strait of Hormuz supply risks reassert themselves. Recent volatility reflect headline-driven uncertainty, with markets swinging between prospects of an imminent Strait…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Iran’s Tipping Point?

Hopes for an imminent Middle East de-escalation have capped oil prices in recent weeks, but that restraint may soon fade.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim
No Deal, No Shipping?
The Middle East returned to the headlines over the weekend, and any normalization of Hormuz shipping now looks delayed. President Trump called Iran’s response to the US peace proposal “totally unacceptable.” Our Geopolitical strategists still see Iran as…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Urea In Trouble?
The Hormuz crisis is likely to disrupt urea markets; trade routes and production capacity can only adjust slowly and at meaningful cost. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jose Yanes, analyst in our GeoMacro team.  In the Hormuz crisis, urea sits…
Daily Insights by Jose Yanes, Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
On Oil Prices
Our clients are split on whether Brent will be below $100 in 6 months. In last week's poll, we asked where Brent crude will trade in 6 months. 43% of BCA clients expect sub-$100/bbl prices, while 32% see Brent in the $120–$150 range, 14% in $100–$120,…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
Why Did The UAE Get Singled Out?

The surprisingly solid ceasefire between Iran, the US, Israel, and GCC countries broke on May 4 with a ballistic missile and drone attack against the UAE. According to reports, UAE defense forces intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones, launched by Iran. 

GeoMacro Strategy by Marko Papic
A Fraying Ceasefire
The Iran conflict appears to be heating up again, which would make the market backdrop less supportive for equities. President Trump said the US would escort neutral ships through Hormuz, but Monday also brought rumors of a ship being hit and UAE ports being…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Birth Of The “Anti-OPEC”?

The UAE’s exit from OPEC is unlikely to impact oil markets in 2026. Over the longer term, however, the emergence of an “anti-OPEC club” of producers favoring unconstrained oil output growth would create a headwind to crude prices and weaken the price floor that OPEC seeks to defend.

Commodity & Energy Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
Iran: Here We Go Again

The Iran war is likely to re-escalate later this year even if shipping somehow resumes in the very near term — and yet an early reopening is looking less likely.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

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Bahrain Iraq Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates See more Topics