Private Markets

BCA's CoreMacro and Portfolio Construction teams combine two distinct but intersecting lenses to revisit a once heralded opportunity: India. We upgrade India across both public and private markets, but the conviction is not the same everywhere.

Beginning with this Quarterly report, The Global Asset Allocation and Private Markets teams are combining our quarterly outlooks into a single, unified framework, reflecting a more integrated approach to portfolio construction. In this joint outlook we upgrade Private Equity to overweight. Sentiment has soured, LPs are starved of distributions, flows have collapsed, valuations are trending lower, Secondaries are outperforming Primaries, and GP stocks are experiencing their worst underperformance on record. All signs of a durable bottom.

Investment risk in Private Markets differs from that in Public Markets. It unfolds over time, with today’s issues coming from yesterday’s investments. We explain why, and more importantly, why the next dollar now faces lower risk across both macro and fundamental drivers. Just do not expect a discussion about standard deviations.

M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro from overweight to underweight and Event Driven from neutral to overweight.

Private Credit outsiders are skeptical, insiders are believers—but are becoming nervous now. In the highlight of this Quarterly Report, we dig beneath the surface to uncover the buried bodies in Private AND Public Credit. The ghosts of 2020-2021 loan originations are catching up with investors.