United States
Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.
This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong.
While consumer sentiment is rebounding, sticky inflation expectations and slowing growth warrant staying long duration and steepeners. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside, rising to 60.5 from 52.2.…
The US labor market appears balanced but at a pivotal point, with further weakness likely to prompt a shift to maximum defensiveness. After running the hottest since the 1960s, the labor market has gradually cooled. That rebalancing sparked a brief growth…
Elevated inflation expectations are keeping the Fed sidelined, reinforcing our long-duration and steepener bias in US rates. The US May CPI would have normally supported cuts, but the Fed cannot risk elevated short-term inflation expectations feeding…
Further labor market deterioration would trigger a shift to maximum underweight in equities. While soft indicators have markedly deteriorated, hard labor data remains relatively resilient, though it has clearly weakened. The labor market is still in…
BCA’s Geopolitical strategists expect further bond market volatility as Congress advances the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which will act as a new fiscal stimulus ahead of the midterms. They assign a 90% probability to the eventual passage of the OBBB which is…
The US-China tariff deal confirms one thing: markets are still priced for perfection, with little upside even if a recession is dodged. The London negotiations yielded a partial agreement: The US will reduce tariffs, and China will remove export restrictions…
Colder May CPI reinforces our overweight in government bonds and tactical steepener trades as growth slows and the Fed stays cautious. Headline inflation rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y), below expectations, as did core CPI (2.8% y/y). Goods inflation was flat, and…
Our Commodity strategists see a breakdown of historical commodity correlations. The US dollar now shows a positive correlation with commodities, particularly energy, and a weaker dollar will no longer guarantee upside for commodity prices. Softening global…