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Australia

RBA Hikes, But Inflation Case For More Hikes Is Weak
Stay long Australian rates as market expectations for further RBA hikes have overshot. The RBA raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.85%, as expected, following upside surprises in recent CPI prints. The accompanying statement acknowledged that inflation is…
Daily Insights by Gabriel Gosselin, Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
MacroQuant Model Update: Stayin’ Alive

MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight in equities, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has upgraded oil and copper to overweight, and is bullish on gold.

Global Investment Strategy, Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li, Ayaan Sohhel
Australia: Inflation Noise, High Bar For Sustained Tightening
Stay long Australian 10-year government bond futures and underweight inflation-linked bonds as market expectations are overly hawkish. Australian Q4 inflation printed hotter than expected, with trimmed-mean inflation rising to 3.2%. Inflation is now back…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
NAB Survey Casts Doubts On RBA Hike Expectations
Fade hawkish market expectations for RBA hikes. The December NAB Business Survey rebounded after a slightly negative November reading. Business confidence rose 1 point to +3, remaining below its long-term average, while business conditions increased 2 points…
Daily Insights by Gabriel Gosselin, Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Global Rates: Sideways Or Lower?
Our Global Fixed Income strategists maintain an above-benchmark duration stance as labor market risks continue to support downside yield potential, even as the global easing cycle winds down. With policy normalization largely complete, monetary policy is…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Market Overshoots On RBA Hike Odds
Go long Australian 10-year government bond futures as the RBA’s hawkish tilt is unlikely to translate into meaningful tightening. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.60% but shifted to a more hawkish stance, signaling a potential hike next year. The shift…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Australia: “Goldilocks” NAB Report Validates RBA’s Patience
Australia’s October NAB Survey showed broad underlying strength, with business conditions and sales hitting multi-year highs. Business conditions rose to +9 from +8, the highest since March 2024, while confidence dipped slightly to +6 but remained above its…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Hot CPI And Resilient Economy Keep The RBA Cautious
The RBA held rates at 3.60%, maintaining patience as inflation proves sticky and the economy stays resilient. The central bank noted that recent inflation data suggest price pressures may persist. September and Q3 inflation surprised to the upside, with…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Central Banks In The Fog: Searching For Direction

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

European Investment Strategy by Robert Timper, Artem Sakhbiev, Mathieu Savary
Central Banks In The Fog: Searching For Direction

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper, Artem Sakhbiev, Mathieu Savary

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