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Canada

Canada: Cool CPI, Heated Tariffs Rhetoric
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Canada: Business Expectations Rebound, Trade Uncertainty Looms
The Q4 2024 Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed improving business optimism, with the overall index ticking up to -1.2, and a net 31% of surveyed businesses expecting higher sales, compared to 13% in Q3. Improved expectations reflect looser…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
2025 Key Views: Five Calls On Global Fixed Income And FX
Our Global Fixed Income and FX strategists published their 2025 outlook, and provide five key views for the year ahead.  Duration revival: After three years of underperformance versus cash, government bonds will outperform in either a soft-landing…
Daily Insights
Canada: Low Inflation, Elevated Political Drama
The November Canadian CPI was slightly below estimates, declining to 1.9% y/y from 2.0%, below the BoC’s 2% target but within the 1%-to-3% range. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, were flat at 2.6% and 2.7% respectively after revisions. CPI…
Daily Insights
BoC Back At Neutral
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.25%, a move predicted by economists and roughly priced in. The consecutive supersized cut brings the policy rate in the upper end of the 2.25%-to-3.25% range the BoC considers as neutral. With inflation…
Daily Insights
O Canada
Special Report

A change in government is the likeliest outcome of the next election, but the pre-election period will be stretched to ensure that the recently announced stimulus trickles down to voters. The next Prime Minister must face President Trump on top of dealing with domestic housing challenges. Go long Canadian energy stocks versus the broad market and long AUD/CAD to take advantage of the differentials in regional geopolitics. 

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
O Canada
As 2024 closes out a busy electoral calendar for North America, our Geopolitical strategists look at Canada, where an election will be held by October 2025.  Canada is poised for a likely change in leadership next year. The next government will…
Daily Insights
Canadian CPI Will Allow BoC To Stay The Course
Canadian inflation was slightly hotter than expected in October, re-accelerating to 2.0% y/y from 1.6% in September. The BoC’s favored core measures, median and trim, re-accelerated to 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, and CPI-common rebounded to 2.2%. CPI…
Daily Insights
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Central Bank Monitor Update: Easing Forward

This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst G10 countries.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Mathieu Savary, Chester Ntonifor
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The US Will Turn Hawkish On Trade, Foreign Policy, Or Both (GeoRisk Update)

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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