Inflation/Deflation
Canada’s inflation re-acceleration makes a BoC July cut unlikely, but softening growth and tight financial conditions keep easing on the table. June headline inflation rose to 1.9% y/y from 1.7%, roughly in line with expectations. Core trim and median…
We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.
With inflation at a six-year low and restrictive policy weighing on growth, our EM strategists remain long Indian bonds and underweight equities. Headline CPI fell to 2.1% y/y, largely driven by lower food prices, bringing inflation to the lower bound of the…
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.
This report analyzes China’s persistent deflation, which is rooted in supply-side forces. Consumption support will be slow and incremental, keeping deflationary pressures elevated for the next 6–12 months.
The June ISM points to sluggish US manufacturing and reinforces long duration positioning amid peaking price pressures. The index rose modestly to 49.0 from 48.5 in May, with the rebound driven by slightly higher production and slower supplier deliveries due…
June Eurozone inflation data and soft growth backdrop support further ECB easing and reinforce the case for long European bond exposure. Flash HICP inflation ticked up to 2.0% y/y from 1.9%, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%, both in line with…
Weakening consumer confidence and fading labor momentum support a long duration stance as inflation fears recede. The June Conference Board Consumer Confidence index dropped 5 points to 93.0, missing expectations. Both present conditions and expectations…
Contained Canadian inflation and soft macro conditions support our overweight on Canadian government bonds. May CPI was in line with expectations, with headline inflation holding at 1.7% y/y and core measures slowing to 3.0%, the upper bound of the BoC’s…