Inflation/Deflation
Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.
The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and announced QT will end December 1, signaling modest easing but no December cut commitment. The decision matched expectations, with dovish (Gov. Miran, for a 50 bps cut) and hawkish (Pres. Schmid, for no cut)…
Australian September and Q3 inflation surprised to the upside, reinforcing the RBA’s cautious stance on easing. Headline CPI rose to 3.5% y/y from 3.0%, above the RBA’s 2–3% target range, while trimmed mean CPI increased to 2.8% from 2.6%. The September data…
US inflation data continue to show no signs of price pressures beyond a near-term tariff effect.
Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held since June and WTI is now down 16% from a year ago. Falling oil…
Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey paints a weak macro picture with limited price pressures, supporting an overweight on CGBs and CAD 5s10s steepeners. The BOS Indicator ticked up marginally to -2.3 from -2.4, as low capacity utilization and business…
The October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey was mixed, showing weak headline data but steadier underlying components. The headline index fell to -12.8 from 23.2, the lowest level since April 2025. Underlying details were not as dire: shipments moderated…