Monetary
Swiss National Bank will have to resort to negative interest rates and FX intervention before year-end. Swiss inflation fell to 0% year-over-year in April, or the lower end of the SNB’s 0%-2% target range, and the continued strength in the Swiss Franc…
UK inflation surprised to the upside in April. Headline inflation rose to a 15-month high of 3.5%, from 2.6% the month before. Core inflation also surprised above estimates, printing 3.8% vs. 3.4% in March. Services inflation climbed to 5.4% from 4.7%. Higher…
Although Canada’s headline CPI slowed to 1.7% y/y from 2.3% on Tuesday, most measures of underlying inflation surprised to the upside, thus raising the likelihood that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will stay put at its next meeting in three weeks. The…
Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate target by 25bps to 3.85%, as widely expected. After this cut, the market still prices in about 50bps of easing over the next six months. According to our Global Fixed-Income strategists,…
Banxico’s 50 bps rate cut reinforces our bullish view on Mexican bonds, with easing likely to continue as inflation falls and growth slows. The central bank unanimously lowered its policy rate to 8.5%, and we expect further cuts ahead as Mexico heads toward a…
Expect broad-based dovish surprises from major central banks, and stay overweight UK and euro area government bonds. Our Global Fixed Income, European, and FX strategists published a joint update of BCA’s Central Bank Monitors. They expect the Bank of…
The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.
Short-term pain from Trump-related concessions, fiscal tightening amid a US and Mexican slowdown, and rising labor slack will weigh further on Mexican assets. But long-run, policy direction will capitalize on the nearshoring trend and resume the trend of Mexican asset outperformance relative to other emerging markets.
The Bank of England’s hawkish cut reinforces our Gilts overweight and tactical short GBP view as global headwinds persist. The BoE lowered rates by 25 bps to 4.25% as expected, but the MPC vote was more split than expected. Five members were in favor, two…
The Riksbank’s cautious stance sets up a dovish pivot, reinforcing our long Swedish bonds view and SEK fade vs. USD. The central bank held rates at 2.25% for the second time this year, with Governor Thedéen describing policy as well-balanced despite rising…